Key drivers of this week's probability shift: The April 10 dual shock (CPI 3.3% + Michigan Sentiment 47.6 record low) materially increased stagflationary scenario weights. The April 13 ceasefire collapse and Trump's reimposition of the Hormuz blockade further reduced soft-landing odds. The one mitigating factor: financial conditions (NFCI –0.43) and HY OAS (2.94%) remain surprisingly benign, preventing a full rotation into tail risk.