Weekly scan of 14 early-warning indicators: the board holds at 6 red / 2 yellow / 6 green, but a +29K payroll print, a 12-year low in consumer confidence and a 44 bp jump in high-yield spreads tilted risk toward stagflation. Scenario odds: soft landing 19%, correction 30%, stagflation 36%, tail 15%; the AI capital window stays yellow.